The 2010 F1 Showdown

The 2010 F1 Showdown

There are four races left (which will become three is Korean officials keep crashing cranes into grand stands) and five drivers in with a realistic chance of winning the world championship. It’s a season which has made Formula One more popular than ever before, and even old drivers like Nigel Mansell are getting in on the act, with the 1992 world champion appearing in the latest car insurance advertisement for Money Supermarket. However, the big questions remain; will Button and Hamilton eclipse Mansell by winning a second title? Can Alonso take that long sought after third title? Or can Webber or Vettel add themselves to that exclusive list of Formula One champions? Here we analyse the possibilities by reviewing each drivers 2010 form, results from previous races at the upcoming venues (with the exception of a possible Korean GP which is guess work) and likely form of the cars at their disposal.

Mark Webber

At the age of 34, Mark Webber seems to have reached his peak. His wins in Spain and Monaco this year demonstrated his natural speed, while his victories in Britain and Hungary were those of a champion as he proved he can keep a cool head under pressure. Wrestling the over aggressive Vettel off the track at the start in Silverstone finished Vettel’s race, and making that unusual strategy in Hungary work out was like something Michael Schumacher would have achieved ten years ago. He also has luck on his side with his car having been generally more but reliable than that of the sister car of Vettel. Then there is the tyre in Singapore, which following the collision with Hamilton was hanging on by a thread. Bridgestone technicians admitted being baffled as to how Webber managed to bring it home in third.

However there have been some poor performances, particularly at the beginning of the year. Bahrain was totally abysmal and in Australia he seemed to hit everything that moved. Webber hasn’t won a race since the start of August and has been outscored by Vettel in each of the last three races. However, Webber’s consistency has kept him ahead in the standings and it is this cool manner which makes him a lead contender for the championship.

Webber’s record at two of the remaining four races is strong, as he is almost always competitive in Japan and Brazil. The Red Bull car should also be very quick in Japan, with no one else likely to match their sector one times. Korea’s winding sector two should also suit the Red Bull but they won’t be as strong as in Suzuka as they will be at a disadvantage on the long straight in sector one, with Abu Dhabi having a similar layout. Brazil shouldn’t suit Red Bull as much as Mclaren but Webber has been awesome there in the past, and was a contender for victory in 2003 for Jaguar. Therefore, expect Webber to be at or near the top in each of the last four races and therefore have a strong chance of the championship. The only question is can he take the pressure?

Fernando Alonso

After a stunning start in Bahrain, leading a Ferrari one-two, Alonso’s season seemed to fall apart as it was riddled with driver errors, mechanical problems and general bad luck. However, that controversial win in Germany revived his season as Ferrari threw all their weight behind Alonso’s campaign while Mclaren and Red Bull each have two drivers fighting for the championship. This puts Alonso in a unique position compared to his championship rivals, in that he will have his team mate supporting him. Therefore, if history repeats itself Alonso will sneak underneath the noses of the Red Bull’s and Mclaren’s to steal the title in the same way as Raikkonen beat the Mclaren’s of Hamilton and Alonso in 2007 and Prost beat the Williams’s of Mansell and Piquet in 1986. There is a very good possibility of this, with Alonso’s form in the second half of the year being generally brilliant and the Ferrari car now looking much better. With two wins in succession in Monza and Singapore, Alonso is the man to beat and has experience of three other championship showdowns to dwell on.

Based on the fact that the Ferrari won on at the fast Monza and slow Singapore circuits, it now appears to be a good all rounder which should mean Alonso can compete at the front in all of the remaining races which would fit Alonso’s aim of achieving four podium finishes. In terms of his previous form, Alonso’s drive to beat the Ferrari’s of Schumacher and Massa in 2006 was inspired in the inferior Renault but don’t expect the Ferrari to be a match for Red Bull at Suzuka this year. Ferrari’s past form in Brazil has been good and Massa tends to go well there, so should be a solid if unwilling wing man. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi should be good for Ferrari with its heavy braking zones which will suit the car, but Alonso’s performance there last year was dreadful. He can’t afford a repeat if he is to be crowned champion of 2010.

Lewis Hamilton

Up until the last two races, Hamilton was easily the driver of the year as he has got the maximum from his car on almost all occasions this year. However, the championship pressure seems to be getting to him as he has failed to finish the past two races as a result of on track collisions. It appears his biggest handicap is the car, which is basically not as quick as either the Red Bull or Ferrari, meaning he has to take risks to do well. It hasn’t stopped him winning three races this year though and only being 20 points off the lead.

The Mclaren seems much more of an all rounder than it was earlier in the year, but don’t expect them to dominate any races. Hamilton was brilliant in Suzuka and Abu Dhabi last year, so he should be strong at both these events. Brazil should suit his car, but Hamilton generally doesn’t go well there.

Sebastian Vettel

This season could have been so different for Sebastian Vettel. In the opening three races the German was the class of the field as he was the fastest man and on pole on all three occasions. However, his car let him down on two of those occasions while leading losing him a potential 50 points, which would of seen him well in front in the championship now. His luck hasn’t really improved since, with problems in Spain and Monza costing him more points. However, the main problem has been driver errors, which have cost him points in Turkey, Britain, Germany, Hungary and Belgium. It is these errors which can be put down to inexperience which have once again ruined Vettel’s championship aspirations, just like they did in 2009. The pressure of being outpaced by his team mate doesn’t seem to have helped matters and this will likely be Vettel’s downfall in the coming races.

Vettel should be able to capitalise on a strong Red Bull to be a contender in all of the remaining races as he has a strong record on all of the one’s he raced on before, but do watch out for his mistakes as the pressure builds.

Jenson Button

In many ways, Jenson Button has been far more impressive this year than when he won the championship for Brawn last year. No one expected him to come close to Hamilton at Mclaren, but he has kept Lewis on his toes and used his head to gain an advantage where ever possible. Button is by no means the fastest driver, but he is potentially the most clever. Strong tyre choices in Australia and China gave him his wins, while his high wing f-duct set up at Monza, in contrast to Hamilton’s skinny wings, was inspired.

Button’s clever thinking and strong wet weather abilities could give him the edge in this years championship fight. Suzuka and Brazil are renowned for changeable weather conditions and Button is generally fast at both venues. If the weather goes his way, Button could be a dark horse for the championship.

Who will be champion?

The Mclaren car just doesn’t seem good enough to give Hamilton and Button a realistic chance of challenging them in normal conditions. However, Button could be a dark house for victory in changeable conditions but proved last year that he struggles to cope with pressure. Hamilton and Vettel are just making too many errors which rules them out.

On paper Webber and Alonso seem to be the championship favourites. Webber has the fastest car and is confident in himself and his own abilities to win. The only question is whether or not he can cope with the pressure having never been in a championship fight before. Alonso meanwhile has done it three times and won it twice, on top of this the Ferrari seems to be much stronger now and he has the backing of his team mate. This could prove to be the decisive factor.